How much do you believe that history can predict the future?

Well?

100%

0%

I dont think anything can predict the future short of legitimate prophesy. But what history can do is teach us what sort of events could happen if we repeat something that happened in history.

Dennis324 wrote:I dont think anything can predict the future short of legitimate prophesy. But what history can do is teach us what sort of events could happen if we repeat something that happened in history.

Indeed. "those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it". Especially in college exams, 'cos that shit is hard to memorize.

:-P

Bryant wrote:0%

So you guys use 0% of the old historic data to predict future volcanic activity???

I personally wouldnt say you can predict X,Y, and Z, but one thing that hsnt changed over the years is people. We all still have the same wants, desires, and needs on a basic level, and thus overarching historical themes, i believe, can be seen to play out time and time again. Things like power corrupting, and the natural liberty-tyranny cycle. What leads to civilizations failing and succeeding, the reasoning behind wars, etc.

Pun wrote:I personally wouldnt say you can predict X,Y, and Z, but one thing that hsnt changed over the years is people. We all still have the same wants, desires, and needs on a basic level, and thus overarching historical themes, i believe, can be seen to play out time and time again. Things like power corrupting, and the natural liberty-tyranny cycle. What leads to civilizations failing and succeeding, the reasoning behind wars, etc.

Exactly. Everything is cyclical and follows set patterns. We think that somehow we can still come up with original ideas on topics such as politics and social equality. Man these ideas are old and have been tried time and time again.....always with the same failed results.

Liberty will always lead to tyranny which always leads to upheaval which leads to liberty which starts the cycle over again.

Amazes me how many people think were somehow detached from history

In another forum, there is a long discussion over who should have the "right" to vote. Argument I have with the percieved right of voting aside, one of the contributors correctly points out that voting freely always seems to lead to tyranny. TUSA has staved it off longer than most, but will eventually fall into tyranny. It is inevitable.

Of course tyranny is always an inevitably no matter what form of government is practiced.

To me, this is a reason that a successful system should take advantage of our natural inclinations, rather than trying to fight them.

And of course this may all be getting down to symantics here, but it also matters how you define both liberty and tyranny, be ause a system in which everyone is happy is impossible

Just as a system in which everyone is economically equal has been, throughout history, an impossibility.

Pun wrote:To me, this is a reason that a successful system should take advantage of our natural inclinations, rather than trying to fight them.

But Pun, we are herd animals. To be led is our natural inclination. To be kept safe above all other considerations is our natural inclination.

Pun wrote:And of course this may all be getting down to symantics here, but it also matters how you define both liberty and tyranny, be ause a system in which everyone is happy is impossible

True liberty comes from understanding that the individual truly is the smallest minority. Once the collective good thought process takes over, society will trample over the individual's rights "for the good of society". True liberty cannot be achieved nor is it desirable. Limitations are always needed for a peaceful society. Therein lies the rub. Those limitations, once limited, never remain so.

Pun wrote:Just as a system in which everyone is economically equal has been, throughout history, an impossibility.

Sure it has been achieved.......of course currency was invented and that fucked that up.

But weve always had a social strata, because were not herd animals, were pack animals, and as such, we desire social status. You mentioned currency, but currency is not the root issue; what today would be labled as greed is. The desire to attain wealth (even before currency) and belongings that make life easier. So this greed, in essence, is a key diving factor behind technology, civilization, and the reason life has overall, gotten a little bit better with passing generations. A little less arduous and unpleasant.

Fear is another good one.

Pun wrote:But weve always had a social strata, because were not herd animals, were pack animals, and as such, we desire social status. You mentioned currency, but currency is not the root issue; what today would be labled as greed is. The desire to attain wealth (even before currency) and belongings that make life easier. So this greed, in essence, is a key diving factor behind technology, civilization, and the reason life has overall, gotten a little bit better with passing generations. A little less arduous and unpleasant.

Herd. Pack. Same thing. Same social strata.

Same desire for the majority to be led.