Santorum, Paul - race wide open again?

Two articles here....

Another Twist for G.O.P. as Santorum Fares Well

His candidacy all but dismissed just days ago, Rick Santorum won the Minnesota and Colorado caucuses and a nonbinding primary in Missouri on Tuesday, an unexpected trifecta that raised fresh questions about Mitt Romney’s ability to corral conservative support.

With his triumphs, Mr. Santorum was also suddenly presenting new competition to Newt Gingrich as the chief alternative to Mr. Romney, the front-runner. Where Mr. Gingrich has won one state, South Carolina, Mr. Santorum has now won four, including Iowa.

His performance added another twist to an unruly nominating contest that has seen Republican voters veering among candidates and refusing to coalesce behind anyone. It came after Mr. Romney scored back-to-back victories in Florida and Nevada that had led to predictions that he was finally on a straight march to the nomination.

The results on Tuesday shook the political world, which appeared to once again make the mistake of believing the Republican race for the presidency was finally set on a stable trajectory. But it was an open question whether the defeats were a momentary embarrassment or a prolonged setback for Mr. Romney.

His disappointing night notwithstanding, Mr. Romney goes into the next round of primaries and caucuses much better financed than his opponents in what will be much more of a nationwide campaign, capped off by the 11 Super Tuesday competitions on March 6. But the enthusiasm in the race is no longer his alone; his front-runner’s label appears to have lost its shine.

Mr. Santorum’s victory in Missouri was symbolic. The vote will not affect the awarding of delegates, which will be decided at district and state conventions later this year. But more Republicans participated in the Missouri primary than in the Nevada caucuses. And his victory in Colorado was a genuine upset in a state that Mr. Romney easily carried in 2008.

Combined with the victory in Minnesota, it gave him an important lift that his campaign hoped would translate into an infusion of new donations and support from the conservative Republican voters — evangelicals and Tea Party adherents — who have told pollsters all year that they are searching for someone whom they view as a true conservative.

The victories were Mr. Santorum’s first since the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3 — a victory awarded only after the fact. And he used them to reassert himself as the leading insurgent challenger to Mr. Romney, though he told cheering supporters at his headquarters in St. Charles, Mo., that he was setting his sights higher than that.

“I don’t stand here to claim to be the conservative alternative to Mitt Romney,” Mr. Santorum said after thanking God for getting him through the “dog days” of the campaign and the illness of his daughter Bella. “I stand here to be the conservative alternative to Barack Obama.”

With the Colorado results still outstanding, he said the Republican voters in Missouri and Minnesota had sent a message to Mr. Romney, declaring: “Maybe in Massachusetts, they were heard particularly loud tonight.” And he called Mr. Romney an imperfect conservative messenger, saying that on health care and environmental policy, “Mitt Romney has the same positions as Barack Obama.”

But the three victories for Mr. Santorum also place a fresh burden on him as he tries to swiftly build a structure to compete with Mr. Romney’s battled-tested campaign team. His aides predicted that the evening would bring an outpouring of financial support. He also may be able to expect more help from the “super PAC” that supports him, the Red, White and Blue Fund. Its leading benefactor, the mutual fund executive Foster Friess, was standing directly behind Mr. Santorum as he gave his victory speech.

Asked by e-mail whether he would invest more heavily in the super PAC, Mr. Friess wrote back, “With him doing so well tonight, he won’t need me!”

And Mr. Santorum, whose appeal has been built on a populist message and a loyal following among conservative voters, now has the opportunity to get a fresh look by Republican voters as the nominating contest spreads across the country.

Mr. Romney appeared in Denver before there were enough returns in Colorado to project a victor. And he appeared to stumble some as he began his remarks to a subdued crowd by saying, “I’m pretty confident we’ll come in No. 1 or No. 2,” and acknowledging “a good night for Senator Santorum.”

Still, he declared, “I expect to become our nominee with your help,” before starting an address that recalled Mr. Obama’s convention speech in Denver in 2008 and what he said were its many failed promises of a vastly improved economy.

Mr. Romney’s aides played down the significance of the night, noting that he did not compete very hard, especially in Missouri, and adding that four years ago Senator John McCain had lost many state races before ultimately winning the nomination.

Yet the stinging defeats could prompt a re-examination of Mr. Romney’s message and a recalibration of his strategy that has focused more on President Obama than on his Republican rivals. His advisers have brushed aside questions about the palpable lack of enthusiasm surrounding his candidacy, but he will now have to address those concerns.

If there was any bright spot for Mr. Romney, it was that Mr. Santorum’s new strength promised to potentially split the anti-Romney vote in two with Mr. Gingrich, reducing its potential threat.

Speaking before the results in Ohio, where he was campaigning, Mr. Gingrich said the results should raise doubts about what has been portrayed as Mr. Romney’s inexorable march to the nomination.

“I think the big story coming out tonight is that it’s very hard for the elite media to portray Governor Romney as inevitable after tonight is over,” he said.

Mr. Gingrich was not on the ballot in Missouri, helping to create Mr. Santorum’s opening; but he was competing in Minnesota, where the party is known for the religious conservatism of a former Republican candidate, Representative Michele Bachmann.

The outcome of the races in Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado on Tuesday highlighted the peculiarities of the Republican nominating contest as it turns into a state-by-state delegate fight. In Missouri, more than 200,000 voters cast ballots, yet no delegates were awarded. In Minnesota and Colorado, only a fraction of voters participated in the caucuses, but the contests were seen as more legitimate because delegates will be awarded this spring based on the voting.

The newly emboldened Mr. Santorum, a former senator from Pennsylvania, was now joining with Mr. Gingrich in a vow to take the campaign all the way to the Republican convention in Tampa this summer. Representative Ron Paul reminded supporters on Tuesday that he, too, hoped to continue collecting delegates and appear at the convention.

Earlier Tuesday, Mr. Santorum predicted that the results would “change the direction of this race.”

He had been hoping to stanch the momentum that Mr. Romney had from his recent victories in Florida and Nevada. All three states that held contests Tuesday have very conservative Republican electorates that are believed to include large numbers of the sort of evangelicals and Tea Party adherents who had flocked to Mr. Santorum’s candidacy in Iowa.It was a turnabout from four years ago, when Mr. Romney won in Colorado and Minnesota as the so-called conservative alternative to the man who became the Republican nominee in 2008, Senator John McCain.

But Mr. Romney is hoping to do well in the elections in Arizona and Michigan in three weeks, as well as in the Super Tuesday contests next month, when he is expected use his organizational and financial advantages to maximum effect.

So the evening appeared to mete out the most punishment to Mr. Gingrich, as Mr. Santorum’s aides argued Tuesday’s results proved that their candidate, not Mr. Gingrich, was the true conservative alternative to Mr. Romney.

Mr. Gingrich was not on the ballot in Missouri, which his campaign dismissed as a “beauty contest,” and by Tuesday he appeared to have so given up on Colorado and Minnesota that he spent the day in Ohio, which votes on Super Tuesday.

Throughout the day Mr. Gingrich kept his focus on Mr. Romney as a “Massachusetts moderate.” And, predicting that Mr. Romney could finish in Colorado with 20 percentage points less of the vote than he had four years ago, he said on CNN Tuesday, “After tonight, you’ll see this is a wide-open race.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/08/us/politics/minnesota-colorado-missouri-caucuses.html?_r=1&hp=&pagewanted=all

Ron Paul places second in Minnesota caucus

GOLDEN VALLEY, Minn. — Ron Paul had his best night of the year in Minnesota on Tuesday, beating Mitt Romney for a strong second-place showing and proving he can expand his base of support from four years ago.
Coming off an underwhelming third-place finish in Saturday’s Nevada caucuses, the results validated the Texas congressman’s strategy of focusing on caucus states at a critical moment.

Paul told supporters Tuesday night that he could still end up with more delegates than winner Rick Santorum in the state’s non-binding caucuses because his fierce loyalists intend to work the convention process to their advantage.

“We had a very, very strong second place — and it’s going to continue,” he told more than 200 supporters. “We do have to remember: the straw vote is one thing, but then there’s a whole other thing — delegates — and that is where we excel.”

“So when the dust settles, I think there’s a very good chance that we’re going to have the maximum number of delegates coming out of Minnesota.”

But the Texas lawmaker still struggled in the other two contests held Tuesday night: Missouri, where he was far behind Romney and Santorum (Newt Gingrich wasn’t on the ballot) and Colorado, where he also lagged the pack. Though no delegates were at stake in Missouri’s primary, 36 will ultimately be awarded in the Rocky Mountain State.
Regardless of how Minnesota’s 40 delegates are ultimately apportioned, Paul showed that his organization can best the putative front-runner in the presidential contest and that fact should energize his organization as it moves into the campaign’s next phase.

With more than two-thirds of the votes in, Paul had 27 percent of the vote in Minnesota. That was 10 points more than Romney and higher than Paul’s previous best of 22.9 percent from New Hampshire’s primary one month ago.

In 2008, Paul finished fourth with 9,852 votes and 15.7 percent of the vote. Romney won those caucuses with 41 percent, ahead of John McCain and Mike Huckabee.
Romney’s finish behind Paul was a blow for former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who endorsed Romney not long after he ended his own presidential bid.
Paul worked Minnesota harder than any other candidate. He left Nevada before its caucuses so that he could campaign here Saturday. After taking a day off to rest at home in Texas, he returned Monday and stayed through Tuesday night.

Santorum also made a big push here in the final week, and he made a final stop in the state Tuesday afternoon. Romney visited the St. Paul suburb of Eagan last Wednesday, but he canceled a trip planned for Monday after his campaign decided they would probably lose.

Paul’s caucus strategy is premised on the idea that lower turnout gives greater sway to his dedicated base of supporters. It’s also cheaper to compete, which makes it easier to stay in for the long-haul campaign he has long planned. In most caucus states, delegates get awarded proportionally, which means he can still rack up support for the convention even without winning outright.

The next test for Paul is Maine, which will announce results from its weeklong caucuses on Saturday. While his opponents barnstormed Florida two weeks ago, Paul campaigned for a chunk of the available 24 delegates in the snowy Northeast. Locals expect either Romney or Paul to win. During his Tuesday speech, Paul predicted that the results will be “very good” for him there.
Trying to convince those in upcoming states that backing him is more than a protest vote, Paul touted a national poll published by Reuters earlier Tuesday that showed him in second place with 21 percent.
“The world has changed dramatically, and our views are not only being accepted — they’re being sought after,” he said. “It’s the cause of liberty we must restore, and we are well on our way. And we’re going to continue this momentum.”

Despite his enthusiasm, Paul didn’t finish first on Tuesday and the lion’s share of the momentum will likely go to Santorum. In three runs for president, he’s never managed to finish first in a primary or caucus.
In Nevada, Paul spent more money than anyone else and built a strong organization but finished behind Gingrich.

During a radio interview Tuesday afternoon on The Scott Hennen Show, Paul acknowledged that needs to change if he has any chance of ever becoming viable.

“You can hardly get enough delegates if you don’t start winning some,” he said.

There's also this one: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/the-true-conservative-alternative-ron-paul/2012/02/05/gIQAzW8tsQ_blog.html

If the Republicans pick Forthy as their man, I don't think they're ganna like what will happen in November.

Bryant wrote:If the Republicans pick Forthy as their man, I don't think they're ganna like what will happen in November.

Not if Catholics continue to feel slighted by Obama. Remember he carried the Catholic vote last time around. They are quite mad at him now. That is a big block of voters and could pull some (but not near all) of the black and Latino vote.

Marconius wrote:
Not if Catholics continue to feel slighted by Obama. Remember he carried the Catholic vote last time around. They are quite mad at him now. That is a big block of voters and could pull some (but not near all) of the black and Latino vote.

Aye, but if the Reps pick Romney, are the Catholics going to vote for a Mormon?

Marconius wrote:

Bryant wrote:If the Republicans pick Forthy as their man, I don't think they're ganna like what will happen in November.

Not if Catholics continue to feel slighted by Obama. Remember he carried the Catholic vote last time around. They are quite mad at him now. That is a big block of voters and could pull some (but not near all) of the black and Latino vote.

I don't see this as being an issue with Santorum. If he gets the nod, anyone that going to vote by the Church would vote for him anyways (he is Catholic, after all). If those Catholics who had previously voted for Obama and feel slighted choose not to suck it up and vote for him again, they'd likely stay at home. While that would harm Obama, Santorums far right and pro-theocracy rhetoric will drive most moderates into the Obama camp (last election McCain still had a bit of their support) and will energize an otherwise lethargic liberal base (if you thought they where excited in '08, you ain't seen nothin' yet).

That's a good point Bryant and I'd agree with you under most circumstances. But I wonder how many moderates are suffering over high gas, energy and grocery prices and blame Obama for that? Will they still vote for Obama over a conservative Christian? Or will they vote for their pocketbook?

I'm confused though as to why Obama would burn his bridges behind him by offending the Catholics. A lot of Protestants and Evangelicals are offended as well. Add to that his offending the Jewish bloc (who normally votes Dem), and I wonder just what Obama is thinking? (Or maybe he isnt).